Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 18.538835 22.410748 26.705847 31.797983 37.643403 44.116465 51.798463
2025-03-16 11.830436 16.526206 22.329418 29.916130 39.450514 50.908437 65.579222
2025-03-23 9.187519 14.347347 21.262589 30.961801 43.938825 60.409215 82.560497
2025-03-30 6.982079 12.095454 19.473246 30.481739 46.019328 66.655572 95.541139
2025-04-06 5.945718 11.237354 19.349981 32.068348 50.782756 76.514149 113.626483
2025-04-13 4.318009 9.057876 16.860506 29.802365 49.750122 78.235073 120.663424
2025-04-20 3.612839 8.255446 16.347646 30.375112 52.777811 85.691520 135.900475
2025-04-27 3.092918 7.662963 16.062991 31.219046 56.202817 93.837736 152.451210
2025-05-04 2.703078 7.229288 15.969175 32.323567 60.057608 102.768511 170.504497
2025-05-11 2.317832 6.709974 15.627451 32.932130 63.106466 110.583048 187.202089
2025-05-18 1.911290 6.036581 14.878282 32.708394 64.713341 116.193469 200.763639
2025-05-25 1.517448 5.278762 13.828644 31.789348 65.020653 119.704980 211.187345
2025-06-01 1.220641 4.713360 13.161157 31.671561 66.989086 126.447718 227.727826
2025-06-08 0.869939 3.861318 11.703447 29.827139 65.750031 127.938229 236.204498
2025-06-15 0.746063 3.645696 11.669700 30.872489 69.879468 138.614268 259.932963
2025-06-22 0.577107 3.198209 10.969088 30.393687 71.057971 144.272488 275.654604
2025-06-29 0.516360 3.118915 11.198061 31.976638 76.328821 157.288680 304.102192
2025-07-06 0.347438 2.501096 9.822532 29.715906 73.774140 156.300154 308.907062
2025-07-13 0.288544 2.327721 9.666208 30.287319 76.981578 165.797206 331.937588
2025-07-20 0.245020 2.202062 9.625132 31.129296 80.800437 176.574927 357.565064
2025-07-27 0.212617 2.114949 9.686442 32.231271 85.236964 188.681463 385.925342
2025-08-03 0.176990 1.980897 9.562574 32.838439 88.640970 198.989534 411.458482
2025-08-10 0.136775 1.776997 9.146010 32.615215 90.198991 205.851294 431.086484